Update: As of May 12, the Trump administration agreed to drastically lower the tariff with China for a few months.
On April 6th Trump announced “liberation day” tariffs which would, according to him, revive American manufacturing. The tariffs would be the percent of trade deficit we have with another country relative to our trade balance. The tariffs would affect every country that does business with the US. But on Thursday April 9th President Trump paused all tariffs except for 125% on China.
After his announcement many of the experts were critical of the tariffs saying it would increase prices and hurt the consumers. The stocks fell and many feared a rescission would be likely. The bonds went down and threatened to destabilize funding. People disliked having to pay more for goods. After that he reversed them while 150 countries wanted to meet to get the tariffs lifted on them. But what were the reasons for this abrupt change of policy? There could be a variety of reasons. This was not the first time he decided to delay or call off economically harmful policies. In his first term he imposed a similar tariff on China, US allies and Canada and Mexico.
People reacted to those in a similar manner. But that was less severe and less global would have less effect. Now without the restraining influence of his advisers who were around in his first term, the President went all out on tariffs. He made a last minute change when the full extent of the damage it would cause became clear. In his first term his advisers would have stopped him. Now his advisers are just enabling him or making him do worse things. However, when the consequences of his decisions become clear he has to pull back or ignore them. Even before the tariffs he proposed several unorthodox measures to do things that made no sense. During the LA wildfires Trump decided to release water from the reservoirs in the north to the south.
They just wasted a whole year’s worth of water for no reason. Now the farmers who will need the water will face problems this year because of the president and his enablers’ incompetence. With the tariffs the Trump administration has conflicting ideas about what they want to achieve with the tariff. Some cabinet members want to weaken China. Others want to bring back American manufacturing. Still others want a reordering of the current global trade system. The result of this incoherent policy decision is chaos. The Trump administration is not able to come up with a plan so businesses could be assured this was permanent or what the intention was to plan around it.
Instead, they decided to use an equation which left too many factors out like whether we would be able to produce what the country is trading with us is unaccounted for. In addition, services which the US provides to other countries are not accounted for. The Trump presidency has no voices who disagree inside of it so when plans are created that are dangerous ideas no one is there to prevent it from happening. An example of this is in the defense department. The Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth went on a purge against anything having to do with DEI or minorities serving in the military. Meanwhile he was found to have shared sensitive military information on an unsecured group chat with national security officials and also his family. In recent weeks top staff have just left the Pentagon due to him accusing many of both professional staff and his own closest aides of leaking, eroding the ability of the Pentagon to do its job. During his confirmation many raised warnings about Hegesth’s ability but Trump decided to press on to get him nominated.
Now we are seeing the effect Trump’s planning is having. Another example is foreign affairs where the president and his cabinet members are sending mixed messages about the war in Ukraine. One day he says the war is Ukraine’s fault, thereby abandoning our allies. The next day he calls a missile attack by the Russians on civilians horrible. His cabinet members meanwhile reject the idea that Ukraine will join NATO. These policies leave massive confusion among America’s allies and business. People are confused. The Trump administration should focus on one issue at a time rather than moving fast.
They will make mistakes which will lead people to doubt the Trump administration’s leadership if they continue to do things as quickly as possible. On another issue where they have made mistakes and have been forced to roll back is on the Departments of Government Efficiency led by Elon Musk. He had to reverse some of his changes like firing nuclear experts. Another example of their incompetence is on Tic Tock. The dangers of allowing Americans to use the app are enormous. And yet president Trump continues to try to get China to sell the app to his cronies. This is just another example of his incompetence. Instead of focusing on one problem and trying to fix it with a rational plan, the Trump administration is doing everything at once without thinking anything through.
